Top 10 NCAA Returners
Written by Nick Kalinowski
While much of the attention during the average draft cycle falls on their freshman counterparts, upperclassmen still frequent big boards every year, with some even rising to lottery consideration. In this article, I created a brief report on my top 10 non-freshman prospects who have the best chance to hear their names called in next year’s NBA Draft. This list consists of players at all three major positions (guard, wing, big), and all six major power conferences.
Honorable Mentions:
Matt Bradley, San Diego State
Marcus Bagley, Arizona State
Kadary Richmond, Seton Hall
Hyunjung Lee, Davidson
Kerwin Walton, North Carolina
Jaylin Williams, Arkansas
10. Tre Mitchell, forward, Texas
2020-21 Stats (UMass): 18.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 51.9% FG, 37.5% 3PT in 32.2 MPG
Height: 6’9” Wingspan: ???
Tre Mitchell didn’t just play for UMass last season, he was UMass’ entire team. An above-average stretch four prospect, Mitchell tended to operate mostly on the perimeter during his sophomore campaign, with only 45.6% of his shots coming at the rim. However, he was extremely efficient when doing so, significantly increasing his 3-point and free throw numbers as the season progressed, capping the year off with a ridiculous 30/6/3 steal game in the A-10 tournament, where he shot splits of 60/66/100. Mitchell has shown the ability to shoot both stationary and off-motion, and should serve as a massive upgrade over Greg Brown (especially on the defensive end) for Texas this upcoming season. Tall guys who can shoot will always be on NBA draft boards, and Mitchell should be no exception heading into this draft cycle.
9. Jabari Walker, wing, Colorado
2020-21 Stats: 7.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 0.5 APG, 52.6% FG, 52.3% 3PT in 14.2 MPG
Height: 6’8” Wingspan: ???
Just a brief overview of Walker’s base statistics will show you what makes him so intriguing as a prospect. A slower-footed forward who can stretch the floor, Walker made major strides in the defensive side of the game as the season progressed, displaying that he has some switchability and shot contesting skills. He possesses a short, compact release on his jump shot which makes him lethal in catch-and-shoot situations, and has shown an ever-growing arsenal of ball-handling combinations, which demonstrates that he has the potential to be more than a stretch four at the NBA level. He does have a fouling problem, and doesn’t have the athleticism of some of the other players on this list, but there’s no doubting that a role exists for him in the NBA if he continues to develop. With the departure of Jeriah Horne, Walker’s minutes should only continue to increase, providing him with more opportunities to showcase his full collection of talents
8. Isaiah Wong, guard, Miami (FL)
2020-21 Stats: 17.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, 43.1% FG, 34.7% 3PT in 35.5 MPG
Height: 6’3” Wingspan: ???
Isaiah Wong is already an NBA player, he just needs more exposure for his skills. He took a major leap between his freshman and sophomore campaigns, carrying the often undermanned Hurricanes to several high profile wins, particularly in the ACC tournament. Wong is an elite slasher who gets to the rim quickly and frequently, drawing tons of contact in the process. He finished fourth in the ACC in free throw percentage while leading the conference in attempts, as his above-average burst allowed him to blow by opposing guards and finish before the help arrived. Wong’s ball-handling prowess allows him to create space for jump shots, and his shooting numbers remained solid despite the dearth of other offensive threats on his team. His defense will probably never be elite, but efficient volume scorers will always be valuable at the professional level.
7. Jordan Hall, Wing, St. Joseph’s (PA)
2020-21 Stats: 10.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.7 APG, 38.0% FG, 35.1% 3PT in 31.8 MPG
Height: 6’8” Wingspan: ???
Hall was one of the more interesting players to evaluate in last year’s draft cycle. A tweener because of his size and skillset, he has the body type of a wing but the ball handling and passing vision of a jumbo playmaker. He operates well within the flow of the offense, firing pinpoint passes through tight windows to cutting teammates, and seeing plays before they develop. That being said, he simply isn’t quick enough to warrant consideration as a true “point guard” prospect. Hall struggles to slide his feet defensively, and does not have the burst required to maneuver around smaller guards. However, NBA teams should love his versatility as he could operate as a secondary creator in most offenses. I would love to see him get more catch and shoot opportunities, particularly off motion, but Hall should continue to flourish in his role for St. Joe’s next season.
6. Julian Champagnie, Wing, St. John’s (NY)
2020-21 Stats: 19.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, 43.3% FG, 38.0% 3PT in 32.9 MPG
Height: 6’8” Wingspan: 6’10”
A well-rounded scoring wing, Champagnie would have been firmly within draftable range had he chosen to remain in the draft this past season. He was the driving force behind the Johnnies’ offense this past season, and it’s easy to see why. He burned defenses in C&S situations, both on the outside shot and on pump-fakes into dribble penetration. Champagnie’s athleticism won’t blow you away, but it’s more than enough to get the job done as a finisher. His above average ball handling and self creation allows Champagnie to maneuver to different positions in the halfcourt to get open looks. That being said, he struggles in more free-flowing situations, becoming quite turnover-prone and indecisive in transition, which will need to be a focal point for him in 2021-22. On the defensive end, he has shown the potential to be a versatile wing defender with switchability, a necessity for wings/forwards in the modern NBA. Developing the more nuanced aspects of his game will be key to Champagnie’s development going forward, as operating as the handler in pick-and-roll sets can be challenging, but hopefully he continues to grow with another season under his belt.
5. Terrence Shannon Jr., Wing, Texas Tech
2020-21 Stats: 12.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.4 APG, 44.8% FG, 35.7% 3PT in 26.7 MPG
Height: 6’6” Wingspan: 6’8”
To get an idea of Shannon’s game, take the above paragraph I wrote about Jordan Hall and flip it on its head. While Hall is a below-average athlete who relies on playmaking and ball handling to set up for others, Shannon is a high-flying, determined scorer whose traits easily translate to both ends of the floor. Projecting Hall’s role in the NBA will be a bit of a challenge, but there is no debate about TSJ. He oozes potential as a 3&D wing, as he can defend multiple positions, finish through traffic, and shoot off the dribble and in C&S when called upon. However, Shannon’s playmaking and ball handling continue to be his Achilles heel, and have prevented him from jumping (literally) onto NBA draft boards. Continued development in those two areas, under a new staff at Texas Tech, should help him firmly enter the conversation of next year’s draft.
4. Jaden Ivey, guard, Purdue
2020-21 Stats: 11.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, 39.9% FG, 25.8% 3PT in 24.2 MPG
Height: 6’4”, Wingspan: 6’7”
Look up the word “explosive” in the dictionary, and there is probably a photo of Jaden Ivey next to the definition. Ivey’s jaw-dropping athleticism oozes potential as a dynamic two-way guard, but he hasn’t fully put the pieces together yet. His main glaring weakness comes in the jumpshot department, where he shot a brutal 25.8% from three last season. This didn’t stop him from hoisting them up, though - 43% of his shots last season were threes. Ivey was named to the US team for the FIBA U19 World Cup this past summer, and again showed continued flashes of the player he could become. Unfortunately, his three-point shooting didn’t show any sort of improvement, but his defensive acumen and acrobatic finishes should keep Ivey near the top of any watch list, especially considering that he will not turn 20 until February.
3. Dawson Garcia, big, North Carolina
2020-21 Stats (Marquette): 13.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 0.5 BPG, 48.0% FG, 35.6% 3PT in 29.7 MPG
Height: 6’11”, Wingspan: 6’11”
Dawson Garcia exemplifies everything NBA teams are looking for on offense in a modern big man. He can finish decently around the rim, step out and hit jumpshots off pick-and-fades, set good screens, and put the ball on the floor both in transition and in the halfcourt. I had him as a top-45 prospect in last season’s class, and that shouldn’t change even after his transfer to North Carolina, a program notorious for destroying the value of pro prospects. Garcia won’t wow you with his athleticism (in fact, he might do the exact opposite - he performed very poorly in the vertical jump metric) or make any highlight-reel blocks, but he showed improved defensive ability at the G League Elite Camp, and another strong offensive season should at least get him a Combine look.
2. Iverson Molinar, guard, Mississippi State
2020-21 Stats: 16.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.3 APG, 47.8% FG, 43.6% 3PT in 32.6 MPG
Height: 6’3” Wingspan: 6’9” (!!!)
One of, if not the most underrated players in the nation, Iverson Molinar was spectacular in almost all areas for Mississippi State last season. An elite three-level scorer, Molinar showed incredible ability to finish through traffic and operate out of a variety of different halfcourt sets. Likewise, his outside shooting took a huge leap forward, allowing more scoring opportunities to open up inside. As a ball-handler and playmaker, he showed the ability to make quick and decisive reads, as evidenced by his overall low turnover numbers. On the defensive end of the floor, Molinar’s monstrous wingspan allows for a plethora of deflections and tenacious on-ball pressure, and he projects as one of the best perimeter defenders in the entire country for this upcoming season. I would have had Molinar firmly within my top 25 prospects had he chosen to declare after last season, but his decision to return leaves no impact on his standing as perhaps the best defensive prospect in next year’s class (with a healthy offensive game to boot).
1. Bennedict Mathurin, wing, Arizona
2020-21 Stats: 10.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.2 APG, 47.1% FG, 41.8% FG in 25.0 MPG
Height: 6’5” Wingspan: 6’8”
A relatively unknown three-star recruit coming into last season, Mathurin exploded onto the scene in a huge way, capping off a ridiculously efficient freshman campaign with the NBA at his doorstep. However, for some absurd reason, no team was willing to give the then 18-year-old (!!!) Mathurin a promise he liked, so he opted to return to Arizona for another season. As a prospect, he offers everything a team would want in the modern wing player. He finishes extremely well at the rim (72.2% - better than most centers), possesses a respectable jumpshot, operates comfortably in transition, defends multiple positions with equivalent effectiveness, and is an underrated playmaker. The one major “weakness” in his game - his ball-handling, may prevent him from being a true secondary playmaker at the next level, but regardless, Mathurin should be wearing an NBA uniform right now, and has no business being back in Tucson. All the benefit goes to the Wildcats though, as they found themselves a true diamond in the rough.