Orion’s Odyssey | Ziaire Williams

Written by Orion

Measurables:

Height: 6’8” 

Wingspan: 6’11”               

Weight:  185 lbs 

Age: 19 years old 

School: Stanford

Position: Small Forward 

Class: Freshman 

Statistics:

Strengths: 

Shot Creation upside: 

Ziaire Williams showed flashes of high-level shot creation throughout the season. At times during the season, he was able to thrive in space generated by screens in the pick and roll, and he was able to pick and choose his spots while his perimeter defender trailed him. Despite passing the eye test, he was relatively inconsistent from these spots throughout the year. His statistics in pick and rolls don’t truly represent his capabilities as he ranked in the 32nd percentile of pick and roll ball handlers in terms of scoring, which was graded as average by Synergy Sports. He also had moments of excellent self-creation in one-on-one matchups, and he utilized the step-back a lot. He created space using his frame to get his jumper off, and he also liked to utilize a jab motion which was effective. There were some points in Williams' shot creation that still need some polish overall as he ranked in the 53rd percentile of points scored off the dribble. The handle needs to be cleaned up for it to be effective, but the flashes he showed in creating his own shot were encouraging. Given adequate development, it could be one of his primary offensive skills at the next level.

Defense:

Williams contributed more consistently on the defensive side of the ball throughout his tumultuous college season. Williams’ 6’11” wingspan helped him out a lot, but he wasn’t entirely dependent on it. He moves well laterally, allowing him to contain smaller guards on switches. Ziaire was also very good at getting into the passing lanes and showed solid hands overall, averaging about one steal per game. He had solid positioning and showed some good reaction time for his steals. He made some good rotations and overall was a solid team defender. If he bulks up, then he will be a great defender in the league for a while. 

Floor Vision:

Williams also had quite a few moments during the season in which he showed good floor vision and passing potential. He is a good transition playmaker and passer who looks ahead often in transition. He has good ideas with his passing with some mediocre execution at times, which explains his assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.2-2.9. This stat is pretty misleading, as the bulk of Ziaire’s turnovers were due to sloppy ball-handling rather than simply bad passing. He is a good passer out of the pick and roll. Defenses like to zone in on him due to his shot creation, and Williams capitalizes on this by finding open teammates.  At the moment, he isn’t a great or even good passer, but given his floor vision, the foundation is there for Ziaire to become a good or even great passer at the next level.  

Weaknesses: 

Weight:

Ziarie’s weight contributed a lot to his deficiencies this season. Not only does he struggle to deal with contact at a wiry 185 lbs, but his aversion to contact is clearly visible. Defensively, he would sometimes go under screens to avoid contact and subsequently lose his man. Most crucially, his low weight hurts his finishing. There were moments throughout the season when Ziaire would refuse to drive because he does not like contact of any sort. He does not like to absorb contact from stronger players, so his finishing numbers are very low. If a team prioritizes Ziaire’s strength and conditioning development at the next level, it will open up a lot of his game.

Finishing:

As mentioned in the previous section, Ziaire was a really poor finisher in college. According to hoopmath.com, only 24.1% of his field goals were at the rim, and he converted them at a piss-poor 53% clip. The reason why he doesn't take shots at the rim often is due to his lack of burst and because he is contact averse overall. He settles for jumpers instead, and he isn't very explosive when he gets toward the rim. Being a bad finisher through contact also does not help him. If he bulks up, he will most likely become a better finisher. His touch is fine at the rim, and he’s a good, fluid athlete. His lack of strength is the main issue.

Inconsistency:

It's apparent that throughout the season, Ziaire was very inconsistent from just about everywhere. His box score stats were all over the place - in some games he would have a solid and efficient 15-plus points while in others, he would have less than 10 on bad efficiency. Given the issues he and Stanford suffered on-the-court this season along with his poor strength and ball handling, there is hope that he can put his inconsistency issues behind him as he develops. The context of Ziaire’s season is also important. Early on, reports came out that he was possibly playing with a knee injury (he was seen wearing a knee brace). He also entered health and safety protocols at one point. Stanford wasn't able to play a home game for about two months, and the team was barely able to practice.  Ziaire also had several family members pass due to COVID-19 and had to leave school for periods of time. All of that stuff can really weigh down a 19-year-old, so it is expected that with more stable, positive conditions in the future he can one day break through the inconsistency issues. 

Ball Handling:

Ziaire has an awkward handle, and his reportedly small hands do not help him in that department. His ball handling issues are the main reason for his turnovers rather than his passing. His handle also prevents him from creating separation most of the time, and in those situations he resorts to taking heavily contested shots. Improving his ball handling will be a major swing factor for him at the next level.

Shot Mechanics:

As stated previously, Williams ranked in the 53rd percentile for jump shots off the dribble, which is classified as good. However, his jump shot mechanics have a lot of issues which can limit his potential as a scorer if they are not fixed. 

Here are some critiques of Ziaire’s jumper:

“There's no single major problem there but there's so many problems.

Basically, just from the open gym shot, going in chronological order and not order of importance: 

* Feet are both at an angle and at different angles 

* Ball comes up from left to right and is still moving left to right at his release 

* His shooting hand is off to the side of the ball 

* His jump is slightly right to left.

If you asked me to guess the NBA% for those mechanics, I'd probably be in the 32-33% range [for threes].” 

This was the clip used in the critique - https://twitter.com/mike_schmitz/status/1367316018931003392?s=21

The jump shot will be a major swing factor in Williams’ development, and the team that drafts him has to fix these aspects to allow him to reach his potential. 

Overview + Predictions: 

Despite his struggles and shortcomings at Stanford this year, Ziaire remains a potential top 10 talent in this upcoming draft. He has tantalizing two-way upside with great length, defensive instincts, shot creation upside and passing potential. If a team invests resources and commits to turning Ziaire into a star, he will be a very good NBA player for a long time.  

Big Board Placement -  1.9

Ceiling Projection - Two-way All-Star

Floor Projection - Out of the League

Player Comparisons - Shades Of: Jaden McDaniels, Rashard Lewis, Brandon Ingram

- Written by Orion (@DraftsOrion)